Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
